The plans to reopen the railway from March to Wisbech have just reached another critical point, with Network Rail publishing its long awaited March to Wisbech Strategic Option Appraisal Report and Wisbech-March Connection Socio-Economic Appraisal Options Indicative Report which together identify the costs, benefits and options for the scheme.
Recent History
Before presenting the results of this, a bit of recent history about previous work and findings as the reopening scheme has been progressing for over ten years might be helpful.
By 2020 a business plan had been produced and there was great optimism when the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA) Board approved the plan. The Business Case decision was based on a service of two trains per hour operating between Wisbech-March-Ely-Cambridge, producing a very good benefit cost ratio of up to 3:1 and was deemed “good value for money”. It was based around the town’s current population of some 35,000 people and not conditional on the additional housing planned, which nevertheless, will double its population. The railway will enable the housing plans to be progressed.
Improvements to the adjacent road network and utility costs would be around half of the project’s predicted £200m cost (which excludes risk) as all level crossings would be abolished, several to be replaced by road over rail bridges. There would be a station close to the town centre at Wisbech, together with a 200-space car park and bus interchange, a passing loop at Coldham and a cycleway parallel to the railway between Wisbech and March.
From 2021 to 2022, Network Rail’s Design Delivery team conducted a comprehensive feasibility review. This identified a number of areas where further work would be needed; it was also clear that the assumption paths would be available through Ely for a service to Cambridge was very uncertain, given the Ely Area Capacity Enhancement scheme continues to be unfunded. It was decided to evaluate the reopening initially as a shuttle between Wisbech and March to remove this dependency.
March to Wisbech Strategic Option Appraisal Report
This brings us to the Option Appraisal Report which was completed in April 2024 but only now made public.
This report, produced by Network Rail’s Engineering Services and Light Rail Knowledge teams, evaluates all available on-rail modal options, focusing on the potential introduction of a shuttle passenger service between March and Wisbech.
The four core options considered in this report are:
- Option 1: Provision of a heavy rail system. This provides a conventional heavy rail solution between March and Wisbech station. A fixed connection to the mainline at March provides access to existing heavy rail depot facilities and rail maintenance vehicle access.
- Option 2: Provision of a Tram Train (hybrid heavy/light rail) system. This provides a Tram Train solution between March and Wisbech station. There is an option for a fixed connection to the mainline at March for access for rail maintenance vehicles.
- Option 3: Provision of a tram (light rail) system. This provides a light rail solution between March and Wisbech station. There is no passenger service connection to the mainline railway. There is space north of March station for the provision of a depot and other support facilities.
- Option 4: Provision of a very light rail (VLR) system. This provides a very light rail solution between March and Wisbech station. There is no passenger service connection to the mainline railway. There is space north of March station for the provision of a depot and other support facilities.
All options facilitate a rail shuttle service for passengers between March and Wisbech based on two trains per hour in each direction supported by a single track with a passing loop (double track) midway.
All options include a new terminus station at Wisbech, positioned adjacent to the end of Oldfield Lane, to the south of the Nestlé Purina site, north of Weasenham Lane, on the site of the former railway goods yard.
Options 2 and 3 include a further option for light rail running to a terminus in the centre of the town at Horsefair.
Now to the critical Benefit to Cost Ratios – which are shown in table 3.11 of the report:
This shows that the project has a very low BCR of between 0.10 and 0.27, dependant on the preferred option. This figure falls well below the threshold typically required to justify investment in transport infrastructure, where schemes with a BCR of 1.5 or higher are generally considered more viable.
So why has the BCR dropped so substantially from values up to 3:1 as calculated in the 2020 Business Plan? The table below shows the capital costs and the BCRs from the 2020 report:
The costs are broadly like the £152m for tram-train and £200m for heavy rail suggested in 2020, versus £147-£179m and £189-£230m respectively today. However, the BCR has dropped from 2.5-3.0 down to 0.18 for Tram-Train and 2.0-2.5 to 0.1 for heavy rail, i.e. the shuttle service only has benefits of around 5% of the through service proposals.
Wisbech-March Connection Socio-Economic Appraisal Options Indicative Report
The benefits are looked at in detail in the second Wisbech-March Connection Socio-Economic Appraisal Options Indicative Report.
The devastating effect of not having a though service to Cambridge is best shown in table 3.6
This shows that the journey time saving is only from 132 mins to 111 mins – whereas a direct rail service from Wisbech to Cambridge could be envisioned to take 40 mins from station to station. Having said that, the 111 mins seems unduly pessimistic due to assumptions about the interchange time in March and also the poor frequency from Cambridge to March. The shuttle service has left the scheme to the mercy of the poor existing rail service along the corridor which Railfuture continues to campaign about – a service where the last train from Cambridge is at 21:00, and there is next to no service on Sunday mornings.
The result is only 60,000 passengers per year – or 164 a day – or assuming most of these are return journeys, just 82 return journeys a day. Overall, the report suggests the following flows giving 148,500 passengers per annum.
In contrast to this, the 2020 report suggested 451,000 passengers travelling per year to and from Wisbech, which looks reasonable when compared to King’s Lynn with its half hourly direct rail service with 757,034 entries and exits in 2022/23.
Meeting with Fenland District Council
The findings were presented to Fenland District Council. It expressed a preference for train-tram and train options, with several councillors noting that while the BCR is an important consideration, it should not be viewed as the sole determining factor. Members suggested that the service should be extended to Ely and Cambridge, with strong opposition to a shuttle service as a viable option. There was also some discussion around the potential for further extending the service to King’s Lynn.
It was recommended that the station be situated in the centre of Wisbech, despite the additional costs this would incur over Option 1. There was consensus that a station located at Horsefair would offer greater advantages than one within Wisbech’s existing train station footprint.
The Chief Executive highlighted that the District Council may wish to reassess housing growth figures to enhance the project’s economic feasibility, possibly leveraging land value capture. Furthermore, the committee was urged to consider the broader economic benefits, particularly if commercial and industrial land in Wisbech could be unlocked through enhanced east-west connectivity.
The Way Ahead
Options are to be discussed at the Cambridge and Peterborough Combined Authority Transport and Infrastructure Committee meeting on 4November 2024, including further investigating option 2, and possibly option 1 to look at the benefits in more detail and Consideration of Interim Measures.
This is a viable and valuable scheme which has simply been caught up in the impasse about capacity through Ely, ending up with the proposals to simply link a shuttle to the existing poor rail service, providing little in the way of journey savings and an appealing service. Small wonder the projected BCR is so dismal. Once the capacity issues at Ely have been sorted out, this will be a very well used service with strong benefits, transforming the prospects for Cambridgeshire’s largest town without a rail service, and supporting future housing in Wisbech. It is in this context that the benefits should be evaluated, and the shuttle service should just be seen a stepping stone to this ultimate